A report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture indicates that grain production in Ukraine has been unprofitable since the country was invaded by Russia in February 2022. This is expected to result in decreased grain acreage for the 2024-25 marketing year. The FAS forecasts a 3% decrease in the total planted area for grains, including wheat, corn, barley, and rye. Specifically, for Ukraine's two largest grain crops, wheat and corn, planted area is projected to decline by 5% and 8% respectively, to 4.8 million and 3.6 million hectares in 2024-25.

The FAS attributes part of the decline in planted area for grains to "lower profitability compared to oilseeds." Additionally, lower yields are forecasted, leading to a projected 6% decrease in Ukraine's grain production from the previous year. Wheat production is estimated at 21.1 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from the 2023-24 output. A similar decline is anticipated in corn production, which is pegged at 26.6 million tonnes, down from 28.3 million.

Consequently, the FAS predicts a significant 27% drop in Ukrainian wheat exports to 12.8 million tonnes, marking its lowest level since 2014-15. Ukraine's corn exports are forecasted to decline by 9% year-on-year to 22.3 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2017-18.