SovEcon experts forecast that Russia might match last year's record-high wheat exports of 4.1 million metric tons (MMT) and exceed the five-year average of 1.5 MMT. The expected high level of exports is due to the Russian wheat's strong competitiveness.

The competitiveness of Russian wheat has significantly increased. By mid-May, Russian wheat was offered at $238 per metric ton (MT) FOB, $21 cheaper than French wheat. This price spread between Russian and European wheat is the highest since the end of July 2023, when the Black Sea grain deal was canceled.

Prices were primarily supported by the deteriorating crop prospects in Russia. Due to weather anomalies in Central and Southern Russia, SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat production forecast in early May by 7.2 MMT to 85.7 MMT.