"IGC Lowers Grain Output Forecast Amid Global Production Declines, Predicts 10-Year Low in Closing Stocks"


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Due to anticipated reductions in corn production in Argentina and sub-Saharan Africa and smaller wheat crops expected in Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, the International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its monthly projection for total grains output by 10 million tonnes for the 2024-25 marketing year.

In its latest Grain Market Report, released on May 23, the IGC forecasted total grains production at 2.312 billion tonnes, which is still 1% higher than this year’s projected total. The IGC noted that consumption growth “is expected to be fairly tepid,” increasing by 9 million tonnes year-on-year to 2.32 billion tonnes, with food, feed, and industrial use of grains projected to reach new peaks.

Closing stocks are anticipated to continue declining, reaching a 10-year low of 580 million tonnes, primarily due to decreases in wheat and corn stocks. Exporter inventories are projected to fall by 3% year-on-year to 142 million tonnes. Wheat consumption is forecasted at 801 million tonnes, outpacing production, which is expected to be 795 million tonnes, for the second consecutive year. This will lead to carryover stocks falling to 260 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2018-19.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index rose by 9% month-on-month, mainly driven by soaring prices for wheat, soybeans, and barley. Despite this increase, the May price index of 245 is still 5% lower than the same month in 2023.