Sudhakar Desai, President of IVPA, presented a paper on 'Competitiveness of Palm Oil in Indian Markets' at the UOB Kay Hian Palm Oil Outlook Seminar in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. He stated that the IVPA expects vegetable oil imports to reach 16.2 million tonnes (mt) during the 2023-24 (October-September) edible oil season, compared to 17.06 mt in 2022-23. Desai projected a decline in the share of palm oil in total imports from 60 percent in 2022-23 to 54 percent due to low spread with soft oils. He estimated Malaysian palm oil production to increase by 2.6 percent to 19 mt and Indonesian output to remain flat at 49.6 mt. Desai anticipated tighter combined carry-out stocks of Indonesia and Malaysia by at least 300,000 tonnes in 2024, with March-April being the tightest months, particularly in Malaysia.

Desai further projected Indian domestic oil availability to be at 9.23 mt during 2023-24 against 9.07 mt in 2022-23, attributing it to a good mustard crop with a significant carry-out. He highlighted a remarkable 45 percent surge in the mustard crop during the year. Desai suggested that if rapeseed prices trade lower than MSP (minimum support price) levels, the Government might need to intervene by either government procurement or a general increase in import duties to support domestic oilseed crops.