Conab Raises Brazil's Soybean Estimate Despite Flood Concerns, USDA Lowers Projection

Soymeal

Published on

In the May Crop report, Conab raised the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate by 1.16 million tons, bringing it to 147.68 million tons.

Conab noted that crop losses due to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul have not been fully factored into the May report. They indicated that future reports may include further revisions of the crop estimates.

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean acreage increased by 498,000 hectares (1.23 million acres) from last month, totaling 45.73 million hectares (112.96 million acres). This acreage represents a 3.8% increase compared to 2022/23. The soybean yield is estimated at 3,229 kg/ha (48.1 bu/ac), which is a decrease of 0.1 bu/ac compared to last month. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production of 147.6 million tons reflects a 4.5% decline, or 6.92 million tons less, compared to 2022/23.

In the May WASDE Report, the USDA reduced the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate by 1.0 million tons, bringing it down to 154.0 million tons, due to the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. Conab estimates the crop at 147.6 million tons. AgResource reported that Rio Grande do Sul lost 1.32 million tons of soybeans because of the flooding, and they project the 2023/24 Brazil soybean production at 144.59 million tons.