There has been significant speculation in Brazil regarding whether the yields of later maturing soybeans could offset the low yields from the early maturing ones. As we near the final yield reports from various locations in Mato Grosso and Parana, Brazil's primary soybean-producing states, it appears that the later maturing soybeans will not fully compensate for the reduced yields of the early maturing ones.

Overall, final yields are averaging about 10 bushels per acre below initial expectations. If the initial yield projections were in the mid-50s bushels per acre range, actual yields are now ranging from the mid to upper 40s bushels per acre, representing a 10% to 20% decrease depending on the area.

Consequently, this week, the estimate for Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production was revised downward by 2.0 million tons to 145.0 million tons. If the current trend in yields persists, there is a possibility that the Brazilian soybean estimate could decline further in the future.

As of late last week, the soybean harvest for the 2023/24 season in Brazil stood at 32%, as reported by AgRural. This figure surpasses both last year's 25% and the 25.8% average. The recent progress marks a 9% increase for the week. Notably, the harvest momentum is primarily driven by the states of Mato Grosso and Parana.